Credit Insurance Protected a Record €9.58 Trillion of Trade in 2025, but Its Share of World Trade Slipped to 14% as Insolvencies Rose for a Fifth Straight Year

The International Credit Insurance and Surety Association, ICISA, has published figures on how much world trade is protected by credit insurance. Insurance Business UK reported them on October 30, 2026. The details in this article come from that report, which also cites the World Trade Organization, BNP Paribas and Allianz Trade. The original ICISA release and those third-party sources were not reviewed, so the numbers are as reported. The report does not give premium totals, claims paid or recoveries, and this article does not either.

What credit insurance is

When a company sells goods or services on credit, it carries the risk that the buyer will not pay. Trade credit insurance covers that risk: if the buyer becomes insolvent or fails to pay, the insurer compensates the seller. Surety, which ICISA also represents, is different: a surety bond guarantees that a contractor will complete a project or meet an obligation, as in construction, energy and infrastructure. Both products help businesses extend credit with more confidence, and lenders often rely on credit insurance when financing receivables.

The headline figure

According to the report, world trade protected by credit insurance rose to €9.58 trillion in 2025, up from €9.25 trillion the previous year. A simple calculation, made here, shows an increase of about €330 billion, or roughly 3.6%. ICISA members represent about 80% of global premium volumes. They had more than €3.5 trillion of insured exposure related to trade receivables in 2025, plus additional billions in surety bonds. About 70% of the cover in 2025 came from the private insurance market; the report does not describe the remainder.

Why the share of trade fell

Although the amount covered grew, the share of world trade that credit insurance covers fell to about 14% in 2025, from an estimated 15% in 2024. The report gives two reasons. First, world trade grew faster than the economy: it cites the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics of March 2026, which put 2025 trade growth at about 4.7% against GDP growth of 2.9%. Second, currency movements: the euro appreciated about 17% against the US dollar between January 2025 and January 2026, according to BNP Paribas, and because trade is measured on a dollar-denominated base, this lowers the percentage. ICISA says that in constant dollar terms the coverage share would have risen by four basis points, one basis point being one hundredth of a percentage point. The report cautions that how the metric is built, and currency effects, affect the share, so a falling percentage does not necessarily mean weaker coverage.

Demand and insolvencies

ICISA's third-quarter 2026 Business Sentiment Survey found members reporting continued demand growth for trade credit insurance and surety, with a cautious outlook on claims and insolvencies. The report cites Allianz Trade as saying that global business insolvencies rose 6% in 2025 and are forecast to rise a further 5% in 2026, which would be five consecutive annual increases. ICISA says the insolvency environment is focusing attention on when credit can safely be extended, particularly for companies with high exposure to trade receivables. It identifies geopolitical conflict as among the greatest concerns for the market, with direct and indirect effects on claims and insolvency risk.

How the numbers fit together

Three facts interact. Insolvencies are rising, which raises the chance of claims. Demand for cover is growing, which raises premium volume and insured exposure. And the share of trade covered looks lower mainly because of how trade is measured. A reader could be tempted to say that fewer firms are insured, but ICISA's own constant-dollar calculation points the other way. It is worth noting that this adjustment is ICISA's calculation and the report does not show the working.

What is missing

The report does not give the premium volume, claims paid, loss ratios or recoveries, which are the numbers that show how the insurers are doing. It also does not break coverage down by region or sector, and it says nothing about prices. Those are the measures that matter for judging whether the market is under strain, and readers need ICISA's publications or insurers' results for them.

Why it matters to businesses and insurers

For a company selling on credit, the rise in insolvencies makes the question of how much to extend to each customer more important, and credit insurance is one way to transfer the risk. For insurers, a rising insolvency trend can lead to higher claims, which is why ICISA's members describe their outlook on claims as cautious. For lenders, the amount of trade protected is a sign of how much receivables financing rests on insurance. The report does not predict how claims will develop.

Limits

This article relies on a single trade-press report of ICISA data and cites third-party figures at second hand. Calculations marked as made here are the author's. It is general information, not insurance or investment advice.