PERILS Raises Insured Loss Estimate for July's 'SCS Cerry' Storms in Germany, France, Switzerland and Italy to €2.8 Billion

A mid-July run of thunderstorms across central Europe has turned out to be more expensive for insurers than first thought. PERILS, the independent provider of catastrophe loss data for Europe and other markets, reported on October 21, 2026 that it had raised its estimate of insured losses from the severe convective storms of July 13 to 19, 2026 to €2,806 million, or about €2.8 billion. Its initial estimate had been €2,186 million, so the figure has risen by about €620 million, or roughly 28%. The storm system was named "SCS Cerry" by the Free University of Berlin, which names weather systems in Europe, and the abbreviation SCS stands for severe convective storm.

The event affected four countries: Germany, France, Switzerland and Italy. According to PERILS, some of the storm cells produced very large hail, damaging wind gusts and intense rainfall. The estimate is based on loss data supplied by affected insurers and covers property and motor lines. Property includes damage to homes and commercial buildings; motor covers vehicles, which are often badly damaged by hail. PERILS does not provide a breakdown by country or line in the material reviewed here, so it is not possible to say how much of the €2.8 billion arose in Germany compared with the other three countries.

The pattern of upward revisions is common. The first estimate relies on early reports and market-share-based extrapolation, and later estimates draw on actual claims data as insurers inspect damage, settle claims and book costs. For hail, vehicle claims tend to be reported quickly while commercial property claims take longer, which means totals often keep rising for months. PERILS will publish a third estimate on January 19, 2027, six months after the end of the event. Readers should therefore treat the €2.8 billion as the latest estimate, not a final figure.

Quotes from the two organisations placed the storms in a wider context. Luzi Hitz of PERILS said: "severe convective storms are a major risk for the insurance markets in Europe and Canada." Caroline Floyd of CatIQ said: "The growing global impacts of this peril reaffirm the importance of having accurate data." CatIQ, a Toronto-based subsidiary of PERILS, publishes the industry loss estimates for Canada.

The same report updated a Canadian event. CatIQ raised its estimate for the severe convective storms that hit southern Ontario, including Toronto, on September 2 and 3, 2026 to C$671 million from C$563 million. As with the European event, the estimate covers property and motor lines. The next CatIQ update is due on December 3, 2026. The Ontario figure is an increase of C$108 million, or about 19%, from the previous estimate.

How does SCS Cerry compare with the year's other storm losses? Gallagher Re's nine-month catastrophe report, also published on October 21, estimates that severe convective storms in Europe caused at least $9 billion of insured losses between January and September 2026, including $3.8 billion from a late-August outbreak. The report treats the late-August event separately from SCS Cerry, and the sources reviewed here do not say how the July event ranks within the $9 billion. In the United States, severe convective storms caused at least $43 billion. Globally, they were almost 60% of insured natural-catastrophe losses in the nine months.

Why does this matter for ordinary customers? In Germany, home and contents insurance often includes cover for hail and storm, but the details vary by policy, and the insurance industry's data show that hail is a growing cause of damage. Motor insurance covers hail damage to cars under comprehensive cover. Repeated losses push up the cost of reinsurance for storm-exposed regions and can lead insurers to raise premiums or deductibles. At the same time, reinsurance markets are softening because of ample capital and light overall catastrophe losses, which may limit how quickly higher claims translate into higher prices.

For insurers, accurate estimates are important for reserving, for reinsurance recoveries and for deciding how much capacity to offer. Industry loss indices like those of PERILS are used by reinsurers and by investors in catastrophe bonds, where payouts can depend on the size of industry-wide losses, though the source does not say whether any such instrument is affected by this event.

Readers should also keep in mind what a loss estimate represents. PERILS compiles market-wide insured losses from data provided by participating insurers, so the figure is an industry total and not a measure of any one company's exposure. Insured losses exclude damage that was not covered, such as properties without storm or hail cover, and they exclude public-sector costs. Where cover is widespread, as with motor comprehensive policies in many European countries, insured losses capture more of the damage. Where cover is patchy, the insured figure understates the total harm. The source does not provide the corresponding economic loss, so the full cost to the four countries cannot be judged from this report.

What remains unknown? The report does not provide the number of claims, the sizes of hailstones or the insurers most affected. It does not break down losses by country. It also does not say whether further increases are expected. For those details, readers should consult the PERILS publication. The main takeaway is that the severe convective storm peril, which was once seen as a frequent but modest risk, has become a leading driver of insured losses in Europe and Canada, as the two organisations' remarks indicate, and that estimates for individual events can climb well beyond the first figure.