Marsh: Global Commercial Insurance Rates Fall About 5% in Q3 2026, the Ninth Straight Decline, While US Casualty Is the Only Line Still Rising

The insurance buyer's market has now lasted nine consecutive quarters. Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index, reported by Reinsurance News on October 21, 2026, shows that global commercial insurance rates fell about 5% in the third quarter of 2026, following a 6% decline in the second quarter. It is the ninth straight quarterly decrease. The index tracks the change in premiums on renewing commercial policies that Marsh places for clients, so it reflects what buyers actually paid compared with a year earlier.

The line-by-line picture shows a market that is softening unevenly. Global property rates fell 10% in the third quarter, after falling 12% in the second quarter and 9% in the first. Casualty, which covers liability risks, rose 1% globally, slower than the 2% rise in the second quarter. The United States was the only region with rising casualty rates, at 6% compared with 7% in the second quarter. Financial and professional lines, which include directors and officers and professional indemnity, fell 3% globally, extending a decline that Marsh counts at 17 consecutive quarters, while US rates in that line rose 1%, unchanged from the previous quarter. Cyber rates fell 4% globally, the 13th consecutive quarterly decline and the same pace as in the second quarter, though US cyber rates stabilised.

The regional composite figures are: India, the Middle East and Africa down 14%; the Pacific down 12%; Latin America and the Caribbean down 9%; the United Kingdom down 8%; Canada, Europe and Asia each down 6%; and the United States down 1%, compared with a 2% decline in the second quarter. Property rates fell fastest in India, the Middle East and Africa (15%), the Pacific (14%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (13%), followed by the UK (11%), the US (10%), Europe (9%), Canada (8%) and Asia (7%).

Marsh attributes the declines to competition among insurers, abundant capacity and favourable reinsurance costs. John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh Risk, said that "geopolitical uncertainty and broader economic concerns remain part of the operating environment." The reference to the environment is a reminder that pricing is only one part of a buyer's decision. Terms, deductibles and exclusions also matter, and insurers have been competing on those too.

A second data source points the same way but suggests the slide is flattening. CRC Group, a large wholesale broker, reported on October 21 that its Property REDY Index, which tracks renewal pricing on property accounts, showed year-over-year changes of minus 12.0% in July, minus 11.4% in August and minus 11.1% in September 2026. That compares with minus 12.8% in June and minus 13.3% in May, so the declines are becoming smaller. A year earlier, the same months showed much smaller falls, of 6.0% in July, 5.2% in August and 7.0% in September 2025, which shows how far prices have dropped since. Roughly 91% to 93% of CRC's property accounts renewed flat or at reduced rates in the third quarter of 2026, while accounts facing increases of 10% or more made up less than 2% of the book. CRC says ample reinsurance and insurance capacity supports competitive conditions, carriers are prioritising profitable accounts, and competition is strongest for accounts with good loss histories and strong underwriting information. It expects the market to remain favourable for buyers, with the softening pace potentially levelling off heading into 2027. CRC's data cover its own book and do not give regional or excess and surplus lines breakdowns.

The most pointed warning comes from the industry itself. Evan Greenberg, chairman and chief executive of Chubb, was quoted by Reinsurance News on October 21 describing "a lot of hungry and extremely naive capacity available." He said pricing is becoming more aggressive in the United States and London, that competition in property is the first sign of softening, and that softer conditions are spreading into more casualty lines, where pricing in many areas is not keeping up with loss costs. Loss costs, he said, are steady but still well above general inflation. He credited Chubb's diversification across countries and lines of business for leaving it relatively well positioned. The article does not quantify specific price declines and the remarks are as reported, not a transcript.

Those comments matter because they describe a risk rather than a result. Chubb's own third-quarter results, reported on October 20, showed a P&C combined ratio of 84.1% and nine-month P&C underwriting income of $5.79 billion, up 33.7%, so the company is profitable. A profitable insurer warning about competitors' pricing is a classic late-cycle signal: when capacity keeps arriving and prices keep falling, underwriting margins eventually narrow, and insurers that cut prices below the cost of claims can face losses later.

What should buyers do with this? In property, where rates are down 10% globally and 11% in US renewals, buyers can use competition to seek better terms, broader cover and lower deductibles, but there is a risk in choosing the cheapest option from a carrier that may not be disciplined; the financial strength and claims record of the insurer matter. In US casualty, where rates are still rising 6%, the softening has not arrived, and buyers should prepare for continued increases, particularly for lines with large liability exposures. In cyber, twelve consecutive quarters of declines mean prices are far below their peak, but cyber losses can be sudden and correlated, so coverage terms deserve attention.

For insurers, the next quarters will test discipline. Lower reinsurance costs, expected to fall further at the January 1 renewals, give them room to cut prices, but exceptionally light catastrophe losses in 2026, which Gallagher Re puts at the lowest for a nine-month period since 2019, have helped profits. A change in catastrophe experience could alter the picture quickly.

Two caveats apply. The Marsh figures come from a secondary report of its release and were not checked against Marsh's own page, which could not be loaded. And an index of renewal changes measures price, not the total spent by any one business, which also depends on its exposures, claims history and the risk it chooses to retain.