Specialty Insurance Rates Fall Back to 2020 Levels, WTW Survey Finds, as Property and Energy Lead the Softening

Specialty insurance prices are falling faster than the industry expected. That is the central finding of WTW's Specialty Insurance Marketplace Survey, known as SIMS, reported by Insurance Journal on May 6, 2026. According to the report, rates fell during 2025 and at the January 1, 2026 renewals at a pace that outstripped forecasts by brokers and insurers alike. The survey's rate index dropped 10 points, taking pricing back to the levels last seen in 2020. This article summarises WTW's published findings. An earlier version also said that the January 2026 figures reflected benign catastrophe experience and abundant capacity across all classes; the report ties the benign catastrophe point specifically to property and energy, and that is how it is presented here.

What does the survey cover? WTW says SIMS reflects about $250 billion of gross written premium over a ten-year cycle, including $45 billion in 2025. It spans specialty insurers in London, Bermuda and the US excess and surplus lines (E&S) market. The data comes directly from clients of WTW Insurance Consulting and Technology and is not derived from broker estimates. The global specialty market leader at WTW, Richard Clarkson, is the named spokesperson in the report.

How large is the fall? The report says specialty rates rose about 45% cumulatively between 2017 and the market peak in 2023. Roughly half of that gain has been erased over the past two years. WTW adds that expected 2025 performance, once exposure trends are taken into account, has unwound gains back to 2021 levels. Rates alone are back at 2020 levels. A further sign of competition is that 2025 was the first year since 2018 in which rate adequacy for new business was lower than for renewal business. In practice, this means insurers were prepared to price new customers more aggressively than the customers they already had, a typical sign of insurers competing for share.

How widespread is the softening? According to the report, 75% of the 42 material classes that the survey tracks showed rate decreases at the January 2026 renewals, measured gross of claims trend. A year earlier, the figure was 30%. Aggregate rates fell 5% gross of claims trend and 8% net of claims trend. The net figure adjusts for actuarially estimated claims cost inflation that rate data alone do not capture. In plain terms, once the rising cost of claims is considered, the real price decline is larger than the headline rate change.

Where is it sharpest? Property and energy lines saw the steepest decreases, which WTW attributes to benign catastrophe experience and distorted frequency and severity trends. Marine, financial institutions and professional liability followed. Higher geopolitical tensions partly offset the decline, according to the report. The report does not give class-by-class percentage figures in the version summarised here, so readers who need figures for a particular line should consult the full WTW survey or their broker.

Which lines are going the other way? General liability and medical malpractice are moving counter-cyclically, meaning they are not following the market down. WTW cites substantial concerns about social inflation and nuclear jury verdicts, and also points to expanding litigation funding. Social inflation is the term used for claims costs rising faster than general inflation because of larger court awards and settlements. Nuclear verdicts are jury awards that are extremely large. WTW says it does not believe this trend is sustainable, but acknowledges uncertainty about short-term changes. That wording is important: the firm is describing a risk and a view, not a certain outcome.

What does this mean for buyers? Companies buying specialty cover, such as energy firms, shipowners, banks and professional-services businesses, are generally in a better negotiating position than they were at the peak. Lower rates mean lower costs of risk transfer, and buyers may be able to obtain broader terms or higher limits for the same spend. Buyers in general liability and medical malpractice may not see the same relief.

What does this mean for insurers? The cycle has turned, but the 2017 to 2023 increases mean many insurers entered the softening with strong margins. The question is how far prices fall before returns suffer. WTW's inclusion of claims-trend data is intended to give a fuller view of expected profitability than rate data alone, helping carriers test business plans and assess rate adequacy. The Insurance Journal summary of the report does not include a forecast for mid-year renewals. Investors and regulators will likely watch whether competition on price leads to looser underwriting.

For the wider economy, specialty insurance is the backstop for complex risks. Its pricing cycle affects the cost of building energy projects, moving cargo and running financial institutions. The 2020 level is a useful marker, but it is not a prediction: exposures, claims costs and legal conditions have all changed since then. This article summarises WTW's published survey and is not an investment recommendation or a forecast of future pricing.