AXA's First-Half Earnings Reach 4.5 Billion Euros, and Its New 2027-2029 Plan Targets 7% to 9% EPS Growth

AXA, the French insurance group, published its first-half 2026 results on July 31 and followed them on September 15 with a new three-year strategic plan. This article was first published in August and has been updated on October 13, 2026 to correct the release date and add the plan. Taken together, the two announcements show a group that is growing earnings at the top of its target range while deliberately stepping back from parts of the market where prices are falling.

The half-year numbers, from AXA's own press release, were strong. Underlying earnings per share were 2.19 euros, up 8% from the first half of 2025, which the company said was at the top end of its 6% to 8% target range. Underlying earnings were 4.5 billion euros, up 4% reported, or 9% excluding AXA Investment Managers, which AXA sold to BNP Paribas on July 1, 2025. Revenues, defined as gross written premiums and other revenues, rose 5% to 66.3 billion euros. Property and casualty gross written premiums were 35.1 billion euros, up 3%, and life and health premiums were 31.2 billion euros, up 8%.

By business line, property and casualty underlying earnings were 3.2 billion euros, up 6%, with AXA XL earnings up 4%. Life and health underlying earnings were 2.0 billion euros, up 11%. Insurance Business, reporting on the results, put the property and casualty combined ratio at 90.1%, personal lines premiums up 8% to 12 billion euros and commercial lines premiums up 1% to 21.3 billion euros. The combined ratio is the share of premiums paid out in claims and costs, so a figure below 100% indicates an underwriting profit. The group's Solvency II capital ratio, a measure of how well it can absorb losses, was 218% on June 30, up 3 points from January 1, which the release describes as measured after grandfathering. That figure includes a theoretical allowance for dividends and buybacks.

The most striking detail was in reinsurance. According to Insurance Business, AXA XL cut reinsurance premiums by 9% to 1.8 billion euros in the half, with pricing down 5%, after a 7% reduction in the first quarter. The report framed this as a choice of margin over volume rather than a retreat from poor business. It also cited Aon's estimate that global reinsurance capital is at a record 785 billion dollars in 2026, and Guy Carpenter's index showing property catastrophe rates on line down 16% at midyear. AXA XL's Middle East business recorded a loss of 0.1 billion euros, which added 0.4 percentage points to the group loss ratio. In plain terms, insurers who sell cover to other insurers are being paid less for the same risk because there is more capital chasing business, and AXA chose to write less rather than accept lower prices.

The strategic plan, announced on September 15 and titled "Growing Forward," sets out what AXA wants to achieve from 2027 to 2029. The company's targets are 7% to 9% annual growth in underlying earnings per share between 2026 and 2029, an underlying return on equity of 15% to 17%, and about 25 billion euros of cumulative organic cash upstreamed from subsidiaries to the parent over 2027 to 2029. It plans a total payout ratio of 75% of underlying earnings per share, made up of a 60% dividend payout and annual share buybacks equal to 15%, with the dividend per share at least equal to the prior year. AXA said dividends and buybacks would come before any acquisitions.

The plan also gives a guide to 2026. AXA expects underlying earnings of about 8.6 billion euros, EPS growth at the top of the 6% to 8% range and a return on equity at the top of a 14% to 16% range. On capital, it expects to generate 25 to 30 points of Solvency II ratio per year on a normalised basis, and it estimates that a revision of the Solvency II rules expected in the first quarter of 2027 would add about 17 points to the ratio. These are company targets and estimates, not guarantees, and they depend on markets, claims experience and regulation.

On strategy, AXA says it will aim to gain market share in property and casualty for retail, small business and mid-sized companies and in life and health, which together made up 83% of 2025 revenues. AXA XL, at 17% of revenues, will practise what the company calls disciplined cycle management amid softening market conditions. The company also flagged structurally growing areas, namely life and savings, direct distribution and inclusive insurance, and said it would expand life and savings capabilities in its own agencies and with independent advisers and specialist brokers.

Artificial intelligence features in the plan, with AXA targeting annual recurring benefits of 500 to 700 million euros before tax by 2029 across sales, contact centres, pricing, underwriting, claims and support functions. The plan assumes a normalised natural catastrophe load of 4.5 points of the combined ratio and moderating property and casualty pricing, including a softer large commercial market.

What does this mean for customers and investors? For policyholders, falling reinsurance prices tend to feed through to lower prices for commercial property cover over time, though personal lines such as home and motor depend on local claims costs. For investors, the combination of a high payout ratio and a 218% solvency ratio suggests ample capacity to return cash, but the plan relies on growth in life and health to offset a softer property market. For the industry, AXA's willingness to shrink reinsurance rather than chase prices is a signal that discipline, not volume, is the priority at this point in the cycle.

Readers should note that the figures come from company documents and trade press, and that the plan's targets are projections. The next scheduled data point will be the group's later-year results.