US Weighs Fed Decision as Cooling Job Market Clouds Rate Path

The US Federal Reserve's policy meeting concluding this week arrives against a backdrop of a labour market that is losing momentum, complicating the path for interest rates. Recent hiring data have come in soft, and short-term Treasury yields have eased as investors judged that weaker employment could keep the central bank on hold rather than pushing it toward another hike. Officials have signalled the job market remains broadly healthy but warrants close watching, while flagging persistent pressure on the inflation side of their mandate, partly from tariffs expected to feed through to consumer prices later in the year. The meeting is bracketed by consequential data: second-quarter gross domestic product and the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, are due the day after the decision, giving policymakers and markets a fresh read on whether growth and price pressures are moderating. With energy costs volatile and trade policy uncertain, the Fed faces what several officials describe as a tricky moment for calibrating policy. Markets broadly expect no change at this meeting, keeping attention on the guidance and on how the data shape expectations for the months ahead.