Insurify Projects the Average US Home Insurance Premium Will Reach $3,057 in 2026, a Fifth Straight Annual Rise, With Florida at $8,458 and California Facing the Largest Percentage Increase at 16%

Home insurance prices in the United States are expected to rise again in 2026. That is the central finding of a projection by Insurify, an online insurance comparison company, which was reported by Insurance Journal and Claims Journal on March 18, 2026. This article is based on Insurify's published projections. It is important to be clear about what the figures are: they are modelled estimates built from the company's own quote data and public rate filings, not official government statistics, and they describe a standardized policy rather than what any particular household pays.

The national picture

Insurify projects that the average annual premium for a standard homeowners policy will reach $3,057 by the end of 2026. That is an increase of about 4% from a 2025 average of $2,948, which Insurify says was itself 12% higher than the $2,636 average at the end of 2024. Insurify describes 2026 as the fifth consecutive year of rising rates. It also says average premiums have risen 46% since 2021, about three times the 16% increase in consumer prices over the same period, and that the average has increased by more than $900 over that time. The consumer price figure it cites is the CPI-U index, which rose from 290.9 in December 2021 to 326.0 in December 2025. The 4% projected rise for 2026 is therefore slower than the 12% rise in 2025 but still above zero, so premiums are expected to keep climbing, only more slowly.

How the figures are built

Insurify's methodology matters for interpreting the numbers. It uses its own database of quotes from partner insurers, rate filings collected by Quadrant Information Services, which are weighted by county population, and loss ratio data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners for the projections. The standard policy is the median cost of an HO-3 policy at each state's average dwelling coverage, with liability coverage set at 75% of the dwelling amount. It assumes deductibles of 5% for wind and hurricane, 2% for hail and $1,000 for other claims, and a single-family frame house owned by a person with good credit and no claims in the past five years. Dwelling coverage ranges from about $292,000 in Oklahoma to $500,000 in Hawaii. The company says it updated its methodology in 2026 to reflect dwelling coverage values and peril-specific deductibles. Its projection approach is based on the historical relationship between industry loss ratios and later rate changes. Because it models a particular type of homeowner, a household with an older roof, a claims history or a higher-risk location may see a different result.

The most and least expensive states

Florida is projected to remain the most expensive state at $8,458, an increase of 2%. That is more than double the national average, and follows an 18% rise in 2025 to $8,292. Oklahoma is next at $5,205, up 5%, and Insurify expects it to pass Louisiana, which is projected at $5,035 with no change. Nebraska is projected at $4,560, up 13%, and Texas at $4,529, up 3%. At the other end, Vermont has the lowest projected average at $1,094, up 1%, followed by Maine at $1,359, Utah at $1,370 and Alaska at $1,482. The most expensive counties in 2025 were all in Florida: Monroe at $22,436, Miami-Dade at $15,715 and Palm Beach at $14,235.

Where increases are largest

California is projected to have the largest percentage increase in 2026, at 16%, or $388, to an average of $2,843. Insurify says regulatory limits make increases above that unlikely, and it notes that the state's FAIR Plan, the insurer of last resort, has nearly 600,000 policyholders and a pending request that averages a 36% increase. Nebraska has the largest dollar increase at $532, or 13%. Other large projected increases are New Mexico at 11% ($246), Georgia at 10% ($288), South Carolina at 9% ($278), and Missouri and Arkansas at 7% each. Insurify expects 45 states and Washington, D.C. to see increases; Hawaii and Massachusetts are projected to fall by 2%, Maine by 1%, and Louisiana and Rhode Island are roughly flat.

For 2025, the largest percentage increases were in Minnesota at 34%, Colorado at 33%, Iowa at 28%, Nebraska at 25% and Oklahoma at 24%. North Carolina had the largest decline at 6%, and five states fell or stayed flat. The 25 most expensive states rose 14% in 2025, against 5% in the 25 cheapest.

What Insurify says is driving prices

Insurify points to four factors. Severe convective storms, which produce hail, tornadoes and damaging winds, caused more than $52 billion of insured losses in 2025, the third-highest total on record, with 19 events each causing more than $1 billion in insurer losses. The Los Angeles County wildfires caused $62 billion in economic damage, which it calls the costliest non-hurricane disaster in US history. Building material prices rose 15% in the past year, and because premiums are tied largely to rebuilding costs, that feeds into prices. Insurers are also shifting risk to policyholders through separate hurricane deductibles, typically 5% of dwelling coverage, and actual cash value roof coverage in hail-prone areas. In Florida, Insurify notes that Citizens Property Insurance policyholders fell from over one million to about 400,000 and that Citizens announced a 9% average rate cut.

It also notes that 2025 was the first year in a decade without a US landfalling hurricane, and warns that an active 2026 season could push premiums higher in 2027.

How to read the projections

Three cautions apply. First, the figures are projections from one company, and actual 2026 premiums may differ. Second, averages for a standardized policy do not describe what individual households pay, particularly in states where deductibles and coverage choices vary. Third, a list of 45 states with increases hides large differences: the gap between Vermont and Florida is about $7,364, calculated here, or a factor of more than seven. Because deductibles and exclusions vary, comparing premiums alone can be misleading.

What to watch

Readers can watch for regulator decisions on the California FAIR Plan request, how the 2026 hurricane season develops, and whether building costs keep rising. This article is a summary of one company's published analysis and is not insurance advice.