US Jobs Report in Focus as Fed's Warsh Signals Caution on Rate Path

Markets are focused on the June US employment report, released on July 2 rather than its usual Friday slot because of the Independence Day holiday. Expectations point to moderate job growth of roughly 100,000 to 115,000 positions and an unemployment rate around 4.3%, a step down from May's stronger reading. Ahead of the release, a private-sector payrolls estimate showed companies added about 98,000 jobs in June, modestly below forecasts and adding to signs of a cooling but not collapsing labor market. The data lands as new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took the stage at the European Central Bank's annual symposium in Portugal, where he said the inflation outlook had improved but declined to commit to whether the Fed should raise rates. At its June meeting the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% while signalling a more hawkish tilt, with projections pointing to a possible hike later in the year. A firm jobs report would likely reinforce that bias, while clear weakness could reopen debate over the path ahead.