US Auto Insurance in 2026: The Zebra Projects $2,256 and Rises in 19 States, While Insurify Forecasts a 1% Increase to $2,158

Car insurance prices in the United States are no longer rising at the pace of the post-pandemic spike, but forecasters disagree on how much they will move in 2026 and where. This article compares two published outlooks: The Zebra's 2026 State of Insurance: Auto report, released on January 13, 2026, and an Insurify forecast reported by Insurance Journal on February 3, 2026. An earlier version of this article attributed weather exposure to The Zebra's outlook and treated both reports as if they described the same measure. We could not confirm the weather attribution in the sources, and the two reports use different data, so the figures below are labelled by source. This is general information and not insurance advice.

What does The Zebra project? The Zebra, an insurance comparison site, projects that the typical American driver will pay an average of $2,256 a year in 2026. It expects premiums to rise in 19 states and fall in 13 during the first two quarters of 2026. The company's press release names only some states. It lists Oregon, Maryland and Utah among states with increases of 8% to 21%, and Vermont, Minnesota and Mississippi among those with decreases of 6% to 13%. The report analyses more than 32 million auto insurance rates across all 34,500 US ZIP codes, covering 11 years, using the company's own Dynamic Insurance Rating Tool. The Zebra's chief commercial officer, David Seider, said Americans face rising costs for various reasons and urged consumers to shop around and compare quotes.

What happened in 2025? The Zebra says average premiums rose about 3% nationally from 2024 to 2025, down from an 18% jump the year before. It reports that six states saw increases above 50% over that period: Louisiana, Nevada, New York, Georgia, Maryland and Utah. It also says Americans spend 2.6% of annual income on auto insurance on average, with residents of Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida spending nearly 5%.

What does Insurify forecast? Insurify, another comparison and quoting platform, reported that the average full-coverage premium in 2025 was $2,144, down 6%, following an increase of about 46% from 2022 to 2024. For 2026 it forecasts a 1% rise to $2,158. State by state, 39 states saw price decreases in 2025, eight of them by at least 15%, and Wyoming, Iowa and Arkansas each cut average prices by more than 20%. New Jersey's average premium rose 20%, one of four jurisdictions with double-digit increases, and Washington, D.C. had the highest average annual cost at $4,017. For 2026, Insurify expects prices to rise in 35 states and fall in 15.

Why do the numbers differ? The two firms measure different things. Insurify's 2025 average is for full coverage, while The Zebra's projection is a typical driver average from its own rating tool and sample. Their state counts differ as well, because The Zebra's 19-and-13 counts cover the first half of 2026 while Insurify's 35-and-15 count covers the whole year. The Zebra's later report, linked from its press page, cites a median premium of $2,079 a year, which is yet another measure. Readers should therefore not conclude that one source is right and the other wrong; they are describing different baskets.

What risks do forecasters flag? Insurify says tariffs are a wildcard. Their effect on auto repair costs is not fully realised yet, and it says repair costs are likely to rise in 2026 because insurers have not yet passed these costs to consumers. Matt Brannon, a senior economic analyst at Insurify, said risks are compounding in crowded states that already have a high cost of living. Repair costs matter because insurers pay for parts and labour on collision and comprehensive claims, so higher costs for parts, whether from tariffs or supply, tend to feed into premiums with a lag.

Why were 2023 and 2024 so painful? Both reports refer to a period of historic increases following the pandemic. Insurify cites about 46% growth from 2022 to 2024 and The Zebra cites an 18% jump in the year before 2025. Insurers had faced higher claims costs and had to catch up on pricing. As claims costs moderated and rate increases earned through, some insurers began to compete for customers again, which is consistent with the falling prices Insurify observed in 39 states in 2025.

What should drivers do? Compare quotes from several insurers at renewal, because the price for the same driver can vary widely between companies. Review coverage levels and deductibles, and ask about discounts for bundling, safe driving programmes or low mileage. Check your credit-based insurance score where state law allows its use, and keep your record clean. The Zebra notes that texting while driving leads to an average 17% premium increase. If your premium rose sharply, ask your insurer to explain the factors and whether other rate classes apply.

What should we watch? Tariff decisions and repair cost indices, state regulatory decisions on rate filings, and whether the states forecast to rise in the first half do so. The Zebra's projection covers only the first half of 2026, so full-year outcomes remain to be seen.

This article compares two published forecasts and is not insurance advice. Premiums depend on individual circumstances, and the figures are averages.