PwC's 2026 Midyear Outlook: 191 Insurance Deals Worth Almost $30 Billion in Six Months, With AI Dividing Investors

Insurance dealmaking is still active, but artificial intelligence is making investors rethink what insurance businesses are worth. That is the message of PwC's 2026 midyear deals outlook for insurance, as reported by Digital Insurance on June 23, 2026. According to the report, PwC counted 191 disclosed insurance sector transactions worth almost $30 billion between December 1, 2025 and May 31, 2026. In the previous period, ending November 30, 2025, there were 207 deals worth nearly $32 billion, so both volume and value fell slightly. This article summarises that report. An earlier version of this article said that deal appetite remained strong because of AI, which overstates PwC's position. PwC describes the drivers of dealmaking as healthy but says AI is creating uncertainty that has tightened scrutiny and lowered some valuations, and the article now reflects that. We reviewed only the Digital Insurance report, not the full PwC document.

What are the numbers? The count covers disclosed transactions in the insurance sector over six months. The drop from 207 deals to 191 is about 8% by number, and the fall in value from nearly $32 billion to almost $30 billion is about 6%, which we calculated from the figures PwC gave. These are small changes, consistent with PwC's view that the market is steady and not frozen. The report does not break the numbers down by type of business or region.

What is driving deals? PwC says strategic and financial deal drivers remain healthy. Higher premium rates, loss cost inflation and better underwriting have been improving profitability across insurance lines, and investors remain interested in the sector. Higher profitability gives insurers and brokers more capital to buy other companies and makes the sector attractive to private capital. This matches Deloitte's 2026 outlook, covered on this site, which expects a disciplined and selective M&A market.

Why is AI a source of uncertainty? The report says investors are divided. One view is that AI could let new entrants undercut broker commissions, because a technology company might be able to place insurance more cheaply than a traditional broker. The opposite view is that AI could reduce brokerage costs through greater efficiency and accuracy, which would support margins for established firms. Which view proves right matters for how much buyers are willing to pay for brokers, MGAs and other distribution businesses. Mark Friedman, PwC's insurance deals leader and a co-author of the report, said that 2026 has seen uncertainty over how AI may disrupt the sector. He linked this to tougher deal scrutiny and lower valuations of publicly traded brokers.

Could AI also increase deals? PwC suggests it could. Many insurers and reinsurers are investing in AI for underwriting, claims and workflow automation. If those investments raise performance, valuations and M&A activity could rise, since buyers may pay for technology and data capabilities, and since firms may merge to gain scale in technology spending. The report does not forecast how much, and PwC frames the point as a possibility.

How does this connect to other developments? On this site, Sixfold's AI Underwriter launch, covered in a separate article, is an example of vendors selling AI directly to carriers, with vendor-reported gains in processing speed. Lockton's fiscal 2026 results, also covered here, show a large private broker growing 12% while saying it sees AI as an accelerator of human expertise. Those examples illustrate both sides of the investor debate without settling it.

What should different readers take from this? For insurers and brokers considering a sale, the message is that valuations are being influenced by views about AI, so a clear story about technology and client relationships may matter. For buyers, the scrutiny means more diligence on how exposed a target is to disintermediation. For customers, M&A can bring changes in service, products or ownership, though existing contracts normally continue. For investors, the report is a reminder that sector sentiment can shift quickly with technology narratives.

What are the limits of the data? Counts of disclosed deals leave out private transactions that were not announced. Deal values are often estimates, and the report as covered does not state a methodology. PwC itself advises companies on transactions, so its outlook should be read with that in mind.

What should readers watch next? The next PwC update will show whether deal counts continue to drift lower or recover, and whether broker valuations stabilise. Large strategic deals, such as Zurich's takeover of Beazley covered elsewhere on this site, show that major transactions are still possible even when the overall count dips. The balance between those large deals and smaller tuck-ins will shape how the market looks to customers.

How should customers think about this? Most policyholders will not notice an acquisition directly, since contracts continue. But a broker or insurer owned by a larger group may change its services, fees or panel of insurers over time. Businesses can ask their broker about ownership, how it is paid and whether its technology changes affect service.

This article summarises a press report of a consulting outlook and is not investment advice.