Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Presides Over First FOMC Meeting; Rate Hold at 3.50%–3.75% Widely Expected

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it concludes a closely watched two-day policy meeting on June 17, 2026 — the first led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, who was confirmed by the Senate in a narrow 54-45 vote on May 13 and sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell. The FOMC statement and updated Summary of Economic Projections are released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Warsh's first post-meeting press conference at 2:30 PM ET.

The rate decision itself is heavily anticipated to be a hold: futures pricing tracked by CME FedWatch put the odds of no change at roughly 97% as of June 13, which would leave the target federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range for a fourth consecutive meeting. That range was set with the December 2025 rate cut and maintained through the January, March, and April 2026 meetings. The final Powell-chaired session in April produced an unusually divided 8-4 vote — the most contentious FOMC decision since 1992.

Because the hold is so heavily priced, market attention has shifted to three things beyond the headline number. First, the dot plot: the March 2026 projections showed a 2026 median rate of roughly 3.4%, implying one more cut this year. If the median moves up — dropping that cut or signalling a possible hike — it would ratify the higher-for-longer regime that the inflation data increasingly implies. Second, Warsh's communication style: known for criticizing the Fed's historical reliance on continuous public forecasting, he has hinted at a possible shift toward a more neutral policy stance and even floated the idea of omitting his own dot. Third, the inflation backdrop: May headline inflation came in around 4.2% — among the hottest readings in years — driven largely by energy prices, even as core CPI rose a more moderate 0.2% month-over-month.

A key recent development easing pressure on the Fed is the US-Iran framework agreement announced June 14 to end their roughly 15-week war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed energy prices lower and reduced the immediate case for any rate hike. President Trump publicly stated before the meeting that there was 'no reason' to raise rates. (Note: This article reflects pre-decision conditions; the confirmed outcome, vote split, and projections will follow the 2:00 PM ET release.)