Trump Says US-Iran Peace Deal to Be Signed Sunday; Wall Street Rallies, Oil Slides Toward $87

Financial markets staged a broad relief rally heading into the weekend of June 14, 2026, after President Trump said a deal to end the nearly four-month US-Iran war was on track to be signed on Sunday. The prospect of an end to the conflict — and crucially, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — drove a sharp repricing across oil, equities, and bonds.

Oil prices led the move. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell about 3.3% to roughly $87.44 a barrel on Friday, June 12, after dropping as much as 5% intraday following Trump's Thursday claim of a breakthrough. US West Texas Intermediate fell about 3.4% to roughly $84.76. Brent is now down nearly 9% over the past month, though it remains well above the roughly $70–72 level that prevailed on February 27, the day before the war began. US equity futures pointed higher, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.6% and Dow futures up 0.7% in early Friday trading, extending a rebound from earlier in the week.

The optimism was tempered by conflicting signals from the two governments. While Trump described negotiations as proceeding in an orderly manner and indicated a Sunday signing, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said the agreement still required approval by Tehran's government, and the two sides gave starkly different accounts of what a draft agreement actually contained. Prediction markets reflected the uncertainty: on Polymarket, the odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal remained volatile through mid-June, having been buffeted by an earlier breakdown that included US strikes across southern Iran on June 11.

For the insurance and reinsurance industry, the stakes of a durable peace are enormous. The conflict has driven claims inflation through higher energy and reconstruction costs, disrupted marine and aviation specialty lines, strained investment portfolios through equity and rate volatility, and created extraordinary demand for war risk coverage in the Gulf. Analysts caution, however, that even a signed deal would not produce an instant normalisation. Energy consultancy Sparta estimated that three to six months would be required to bring production and refineries fully back online and restore shipping flows to pre-war status. Fitch Ratings' base case assumes Brent will average $87 a barrel across 2026, premised on the Strait of Hormuz reopening around the end of July — implying an effective five-month closure of the waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of the world's traded oil.