Markets Steady on US-Iran Peace Hopes as Oil Falls to $85; SpaceX Stages Record $75 Billion IPO

Global markets entered the weekend on a cautiously optimistic footing as a confluence of major developments reshaped sentiment. The dominant driver was renewed hope for an end to the US-Iran conflict that has gripped markets since late February 2026. President Trump announced he had canceled planned military strikes on Iran overnight, stating that the two sides had reached 'a very strong memorandum of understanding' to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported that the draft agreement includes lifting oil sanctions and restoring safe passage through the strait, with reports suggesting a formal signing could take place in Switzerland as soon as Sunday, June 14.

The market reaction was immediate in commodities. Crude oil fell approximately 2% to near $85 per barrel on June 12, extending a retreat from the $94-plus levels seen earlier in the week and sitting just above its earlier two-month lows. The prospect of restored Iranian oil exports and an unblocked Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 20% of the world's traded oil — has eased the supply-shock premium that drove energy prices higher through the spring.

Equities were more mixed. On June 12, the S&P 500 was roughly flat, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose around 0.57%, and the Nasdaq slipped about 0.30%, with all three indexes having swung through a volatile session. The major indexes remained down for the month overall, weighed by worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later in 2026 — a concern amplified by the prior Friday's session, when the S&P 500 sank 2.6% after a strong May jobs report reinforced the case for tighter policy.

The session's standout corporate event was the public market debut of SpaceX, which completed the largest initial public offering on record, raising approximately $75 billion to fund expansion of its satellite, launch, and compute infrastructure. The stock closed its first day up more than 19% at around $161 per share and was rapidly added to major MSCI indexes. The scale of the offering prompted debate among traders about whether such a massive IPO could drain liquidity from the broader market — a classic concern that some analysts argued the math did not support this time.

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 FOMC meeting and consumer inflation expectations data, both of which will test whether the peace-driven relief in energy markets can translate into a more benign inflation and rate outlook.